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The Student News Website of Francis Howell North High School.

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Jake’s Take: MLB Wild Card Worry Spectrum

Busch Stadium on April 19, 2014 (photo from shutterstock.com)
Busch Stadium on April 19, 2014 (photo from shutterstock.com)

As much as I love football, I have to respect the established sport of the summer. We have just about three weeks left in the Major League Baseball season, which provides this columnist the perfect time to break down the races for the MLB postseason.

Some teams, like the New York Mets and the St. Louis Cardinals, are using these last three weeks to fight for their seasons. Others, like the Atlanta Braves and the Minnesota Twins, have already been eliminated from playoff contention and are using these last three weeks to develop their young players. Others still, like myself and half of American League fans, are using these last three weeks to chew our nails to a nub and rip out our hair as we watch the magic of September baseball play out with anxious anticipation.

Regardless of where you fall on my newly introduced Worry Spectrum (patent pending), this time of year is always the best and worst time to be a baseball fan. But have no fear, as I am here to tell you how worried you should be and which team’s bandwagon you should get on before the playoffs start.

First, though, a few ground rules for the Worry Spectrum. The Worry Spectrum is mapped on a scale from zero (no worry) to 10 (the most worry). These numbers are made completely of my own views. I do no fancy calculations; I simply have my statistics and my linguistics. Finally, I will be assigning Worry Points to all teams that are currently involved in a Wild Card race. This does not include division leaders or teams without a legitimate chance at the playoffs. All statistics used are accurate as of Sept. 11.

AL

Baltimore Orioles (78-64)

The Orioles currently hold the top Wild Card spot by virtue of a tiebreaker over the Blue Jays, but they are still just two games behind the Boston Red Sox for the division lead. Baltimore is in a good place, and their volatile offense and surehanded defense will keep them there. The only problem is that they have a few hungry teams who trail by only two games looking up at the them in standings, yet I keep my faith in the Orioles.

Worry Rating: 2/10

Toronto Blue Jays (78-64)

Ditto the Orioles.

Worry Rating: 2/10


Detroit Tigers (76-66)

The Tigers are the kind of team that alternates good and bad seasons. They had a bad season last year, meaning that they’ll likely have a bad season in 2017. Things do not bode well for Detroit if falling short (as I predict the team to do) of a Wild Card spot is considered a good season.

Worry Rating: 8/10

New York Yankees (76-66)

The Yankees’ story is similar to the Tigers’ in that they tend to have swinging seasons. The difference lies in the Yankees’ superb rebuilding. They’ve developed a young core of players that were not disbanded at the trade deadline, and their bullpen is one of the best in all of baseball. If they can find starting pitching to match their relievers, the Yankees will be in the talk of contention much more.

Worry Rating: 4/10

Houston Astros (75-68)

In spring training, I picked the Astros to win the AL West and have the best record in the American League. Clearly, I was wrong, and those expectations that I and other pundits placed on the team seem to have caused a break in the chain. Let’s hope that they can right the ship before next season because the division is getting much better around them.

Worry Rating: 7/10

Seattle Mariners (75-68)

The Mariners were widely considered a dark horse candidate in the AL, meaning that they were not expected to do overwhelmingly well without a very special set of circumstances. Seattle should not be upset with a 75-68 record and a few games back of the Wild Card. Rather, they should start planning for the offseason to shore up the holes in their lineup and starting pitching to prepare for 2017.

Worry Rating: 5/10

Kansas City Royals (74-68)

Defending World Series champions. Stumbling. Fumbling. Looking up in the standings at six teams for a Wild Card spot. That equals a pretty big “Uh-oh” in my book.

Worry Rating: 9/10

NL

San Francisco Giants (77-65)

It’s the San Francisco Giants in an even-numbered year. But they are the worst on this list of NL Wild Card contenders with a record of just 17-21 since July 30, according to Baseball-Reference.com. The Cardinals are slightly better in the same time frame at 19-19, while only the Mets have a winning record at 23-17. This does cause a very good degree of worry, but not an overwhelming amount because this year ends in a number that is a multiple of two.

Worry Rating: 7/10


New York Mets (76-67)

As stated above, New York is the only team that is winning since the turn of the calendar to August. This is as good of a sign as any for the once-struggling Mets, as they were given just a seven percent chance of making the playoffs by Fangraphs as recently as Aug. 19. That number has since climbed to 59 percent. If the Mets do earn a Wild Card spot, it will be attributed to a potent combination of their winning and the losing of the two teams bookending them on this list.

Worry Rating: 5/10

St. Louis Cardinals (75-67)

I mentioned that the Mets’ playoff probability has jumped from seven percent to 59 percent since Aug. 19. In that same time, the Cardinals’ playoff probability has fallen from 72 percent to 56 percent. This is due to a combination of factors, but none is more prevalent than the ineffectiveness of St. Louis’ starting pitching. The bullpen is doing its job, and the offense tied the NL record for consecutive games with a home run at 25. St. Louis is going to need to relocate its presence on the mound if they want to regain lost ground in the Wild Card race.

Worry Rating: 7/10

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