From the Bleachers: Predictions for the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs

Happy New Year! 2017 was a wild year in sports, with some of the top teams in American sports reclaiming their dominance to thrilling championship games across the college and professional levels. The year started off with Clemson winning the national championship in college football on one of the last plays of the game, which was then followed up by the Patriots winning their fifth Super Bowl over the Falcons on the last play of that game. The Warriors and Penguins both won their second championship in the last three years in their respective leagues, and the year concluded with the Astros winning their first World Series in a spectacular seven game series with the Dodgers.

While 2017 was a fantastic year in the world of sports, 2018 has potential to be even better.

The new year begins with the opening round of the NFL playoffs, with both familiar and new faces set to make an appearance this weekend. Six of the eight teams that will be playing in the Wild Card round of the playoffs missed the postseason last year, with the exceptions being the Chiefs and the Falcons. From the large set of teams making their first playoff appearance in years to multiple exciting match-ups, the first round of the playoffs is shaping up to be a good one. In this week’s column, each game is broken down and given predictions for the final score. 

Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Jan. 6 3:35 P.M. CT ESPN/ABC

The first of the four Wild Card games is between the Titans and Chiefs. It’s the third straight year in which Kansas City has appeared in the playoffs, while Tennessee hasn’t played meaningful football in January in nearly ten years. The Chiefs come into this game as favorites,  having a significant edge on the offensive side of the ball. The hosts averaged 61.4 more yards per game than the Titans with 375.4 total and also averaged five more points per game with 25.9. Kansas City ranks in the top ten of both categories, being led by skill players Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and veteran quarterback Alex Smith. With these four leading the way, the Chiefs are the second team in NFL history to have a 4,000 yard passer, and a 1,000 yard rusher, receiver, and tight end.

Slowing down the history-making group of Chiefs poses quite the threat to a Titans defense that has been in the middle of the pack for a majority of the season. Allowing 328 YPG and 22.2 PPG, Tennessee ranks 13th and 17th in the NFL in the top two defensive categories. While they’re slightly better than the hosts in both yards and points allowed, there’s a heavy difference in terms of turnovers between the two teams. The Chiefs had the second best turnover-giveaway ratio in the league at 15, much higher than the Titans’ -4 ratio. In an atmosphere such as Arrowhead Stadium, it doesn’t look good for Marcus Mariota’s turnover-prone Tennessee offense, and it will be their downfall Saturday afternoon. 

Prediction: Kansas City wins 30-17 over Tennessee

 

Atlanta Falcons vs. Los Angeles Rams Jan. 6 7:15 P.M. CT NBC

The lone prime time game this weekend looks to be, on paper, the most exciting of the four match-ups, consisting of the Atlanta Falcons and the Los Angeles Rams. On one side there’s the explosive offense of the Rams, led by sophomore quarterback Jared Goff and MVP candidate Todd Gurley. Gurley bounced-back from a disappointing 2016 campaign in a big way this season, leading all running backs in yards from scrimmage (2,093) and total touchdowns (19). Behind the star back, the Rams scored the most PPG (29.9) in the entire NFL, while the Falcons were stuck in the middle with 22.1 PPG.

Atlanta took a major step back on offense in 2017 after being carried to the Super Bowl by nearly the same unit last season, but still have some of the league’s top talent in their disposal with the likes of halfback Devonta Freeman and star wide out Julio Jones. Freeman’s season was riddled with injuries and was at less than 100% for most of the year, while Jones totaled the second most receiving yards in the league with 1,444.

The Falcons will need both to hit the red carpet running in Hollywood if they hope to keep pace with Gurley and the Rams offense Saturday night, which could prove to be an awfully large challenge due to one man: Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald. No defender in the NFL had more QB pressures than Donald in 2017 with a whopping 91, with 11 resulting in a sack. Good luck with that, Matt Ryan. 

Which of the four Wild Card games are you most looking forward to this weekend?

• Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
• Atlanta Falcons vs. Los Angeles Rams
• Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
• Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints

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Prediction: Los Angeles wins 38-24 over Atlanta

 

Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Jan. 7 12:05 P.M. CT CBS

Sunday’s early game is between two of this season’s most surprising teams: the Jacksonville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills. Both had been on extensive playoff droughts coming into the year, with the Jags returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2007 and the Bills ending what was the longest playoff drought of all North American teams in the top four sports, last making the playoffs in 1999. Neither of the two teams have ever won the Super Bowl.

To the game itself, the Jaguars’ fifth ranked offense is led by rookie running back Leonard Fournette. Fournette ran for 1,040 yards and 9 touchdowns in his first season and matches up well with a Buffalo run defense that surrendered the fourth most rushing yards (1994) in the NFL. Stopping the run has been a struggle all year for this Bills defense, but if they can find a way to slow down Jacksonville’s running game, they could force Blake Bortles to throw the ball more and make him win the game. This could bode well for the Bills, as Bortles has thrown over ten interceptions in each of his first four seasons and it is yet to be seen how he handles a playoff environment.

What could be the biggest struggle for the Bills, however, is on the offensive side of the ball. Buffalo has been carried by the star veteran running back LeSean McCoy for most of the season, with McCoy topping 1,000 rushing yards for the sixth time in his career this season. The Bills may have to find a way to be productive on offense without McCoy, as he suffered an ankle injury last Sunday that could keep him out of their opening round match-up. The problem is almost every team that’s played Jacksonville has struggled to muster up much of anything on offense, as the Jaguars have allowed the second fewest yards (286.1) and points (16.8) per game in the league. Without a fully healthy McCoy, the Bills will be forced to rely on a wide receiver unit that had the least amount of total yards (1,474) for a group of wide receivers since Kansas City in 2012 against an elite defense in Jacksonville. The party up in Buffalo looks to be coming to an early end.

Prediction: Jacksonville wins 24-7 over Buffalo

 

Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints Jan. 7 3:40 P.M. CT FOX

The last game of Wild Card weekend is its’ only divisional match-up and it resides in the NFC South: the Panthers and Saints. It’s the highest ranking game in terms of combined record, as both teams come into the game with records of 11-5. The Saints won both of their two meetings with the Panthers during the regular season by a combined score of 65-34. If Carolina hopes to erases the sour memories of their previous two losses to their rivals, they’ll need star quarterback Cam Newton to find a way to penetrate the New Orleans defense.

In their two losses to the Saints during the regular season, Newton threw for a combined 350 yards, two touchdowns, and three interception while also having a lackluster 41.8 QB rating in the first match-up between the two. Part of these struggles are due to New Orleans’ strong secondary led by rookie corner back Marshon Lattimore. The Saints had the third most interceptions (20) and allowed the twelfth fewest passing touchdowns (22) in football this past season. Cam likes to keep the ball on the ground and run options with rookie tailback Christian McCaffrey, but in order to finally overcome this Saints defense he has to be more efficient through the air, especially with a guy like Drew Brees on the opposing side.

Brees enjoyed another strong year in 2017, putting up the fourth most yards (4,334) and throwing the eleventh most touchdowns (23). While much of the team’s offensive success is thanks to the future Hall of Famer, it is also in large part due to the explosive running back duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Starting with Ingram, the 28 year old back ran for the fifth most yards (1124) and second most touchdowns (12). Then there’s the rookie Alvin Kamara, who totaled 1,554 scrimmage yards and 13 touchdowns in his first season. On one side is one of the league’s best running games, and on the other is one of the best defenses at stopping the run. Only two teams allowed fewer rushing yards than the Panthers, who gave up just 1409 yards on the ground last season. With two Super Bowl caliber defenses and play makers all across both offenses, the last game of Wild Card weekend could very well end up being its’ best.

Prediction: New Orleans wins 24-21 over Carolina