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Jake’s Take: Week One Postseason Predictions

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Softball vs FZW on Aug. 25 (photo by abby temper)

And… boom goes the dynamite. The NFL has returned, and it is bigger than ever. After a wee bit of controversy deflated the positive view of professional football, the season kicked off with a thrilling game between two of the most powerful passing offenses in the league. With the first game of the season under the metaphorical belt of the NFL, I feel it is time for some postseason predictions. The only criteria for these predictions are how they stack up against their conference rivals and what their schedule looks like. Be prepared; this is going to get a little hairy. Let us begin.

AFC

Wild Card 2- San Diego Chargers (10-6)

The San Diego Chargers have been involved in their own stint of controversy this offseason. The people of Los Angeles have been rooting for a team of their own since the Rams left in 1994, and the Chargers are right in the thick of the discussions. They’re in talks for a new stadium in the City of Angels along with the Oakland Raiders and the St. Louis Rams. This discussion would be a distraction to most franchises, but the Philip Rivers and the Chargers are going to push through this year. A fairly easy schedule in the AFC West will lead to a lot of success, except for Weeks 5-6 against the Steelers and Packers respectively. Look for San Diego to make a push for a Wild Card spot this year, but don’t count out a division win with the aging Broncos’ days numbered.

Wild Card 1- Houston Texans (10-6)

It’s a hard knock life for the Texans. Not only are they facing a long season in a grueling AFC South, but their entire offseason was spent under the harsh and unforgiving spotlight of national television. Like the Chargers, they faced obstacles, and they too will overcome to reach their first postseason since 2012 and just their third trip to the playoffs in franchise history. It’s tough to predict which one of these wild cards will take the top spot, but I chose the Texans to take the prize solely because of the ease of their schedule. Be on the watch for the Texans because they are, as the great pop idol Beyonce said in her song “Flawless,” “H-Town vicious.” There’s your one Beyonce reference for the year.

Division Winner 4- Denver Broncos (11-5)

What has been happening to the Denver Broncos? Allow me to explain. First, Peyton Manning’s neck and back are finally catching up to him, and they’re taking away a lot of velocity on his classic bullet passes. Not only that, but they’ve lost two key weapons on offense in Montee Ball and Julius Thomas over the course of the offseason, leaving the Broncos with C.J. Anderson as their every-down back and giving Manning only two legitimate threats to whom to throw the football in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Their defense will still be just above the line of mediocrity, but they won’t make any headlines unless their secondary can step it up big time. All in all, all is not well in Denver. Of course they will still make the playoffs, but for how much longer? For all we know, this could likely be Manning’s last go around in this league. Let’s cherish him while we’ve got him and wish him luck to make it through the season in one piece.

Division Winner 3- Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

The bad news is that the Steelers lost the inaugural game of the 2015-16 season. The good news is that the Steelers have already gotten 25 percent of their losses out of the way. Looking with this glass-half-full view, the city of Pittsburgh has a great autumn ahead of it. The Pirates are very competitive in the MLB, and the Steelers are poised to take a shot at going deep in the playoffs over the course of the next 16 weeks of the season. The biggest takeaway from Week 1 was the shockingly impressive game that DeAngelo Williams had against the stout New England defensive line. He put up 127 yards on 27 carries for his team, and he is the reason that the Steelers were able to remain competitive in that game. Williams is going to be a huge X-factor this season. If he rips off stat lines like that each week, count the Steelers as a lock for a division title. If not, they’ll at least be a lot more competitive than in years passed.

Division Winner 2- Indianapolis Colts (13-3)

To some, the Indianapolis Colts are simply another high-powered offense in the AFC. To those writing this piece (me), the Colts are scary. An offense boasting Andrew Luck at the helm with anyone from Coby Fleener to Andre Johnson to T.Y. Hilton to throw the ball to and Frank Gore anchoring the running game- that’s enough to make any defense need a change of underwear. Their defense, like nearly every other AFC team on this list, is nothing special. While they should be slightly above average, it won’t be by much, meaning that the offense is going to have to carry the team. The old adage goes “If we score, we might win. If they don’t score, we’ll never lose.” Clearly, none of the teams on the AFC side of this list have heard that because they’re all looking like extremely offensively-oriented teams. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, and it will surely make the playoffs a heck of a lot more interesting.

Division Winner 1- New England Patriots (13-3)

I’ve touched on controversy in the paragraphs preceding this, but one cannot truly understand such a word without also understanding what has transpired between the New England Patriots franchise and the NFL Commissioner’s Office dating all the way back to the beginning of the millennium. ESPN does a great job of laying it all out here. Back to current-day football, the Patriots are one angry franchise (stronger words could be used to describe their emotions, but they are not appropriate). Not only are they angry, but their offense is looking very good. Dion Lewis was a great surprise for the Patriots in their Week 1 victory over the Steelers, and it looks like he may now have the inside track to the job as the “regular back” in the revolving door that is the Patriots’ backfield. This offense led by one enraged Tom Brady is complemented by a defense that is constantly rebuilding, but they seem to have found a solid young core in Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones on the edges of the defensive line. This all being taken into account, I’ve devised a fairly simple equation for the Patriots’ season: Angry Tom Brady + Improving Defense + Bill Belichick = Wins.

NFC

Wild Card 2- Detroit Lions (10-6)

They’ve started from the bottom; now they’re here. Many people forget that the Detroit Lions hold the record for the worst season by a team in league history with their infamous 0-16 mark in 2008. That’s right; you’re not reading this wrong. Just seven years ago, the Lions were the worst team in NFL history. Now, they are a semi-perennial contender in a tough NFC North division. This epic turnaround can be attributed to Martin Mayhew, the Lions’ GM, and Matthew Stafford. Stafford does not get the credit that he deserves. Mayhew drafted him No. 1 overall immediately following the 0-16 season. Since then, he has been consistently productive, minus a shoulder injury in 2010, and he has led the Lions back into the realms of relevancy with two playoff appearances in the last five years and another one coming this year.

Wild Card 1- Dallas Cowboys (11-5)

It’s a good year to be a texan. Not just the team from Houston, but the team from Dallas is looking to continue on the success that they had last year. Sadly, a division championship will be the highest they reach. They face one of the toughest schedules of all of the contenders, and it will haunt them all season long. Cowboys fans have to be used to the constant crashes and slumps of their team, but they are finally looking up. Dallas is going to muddle through this year like they usually do, but they’re going to realize their playoff dreams again this year. Good luck to the Cowboys and, more specifically, Tony Romo, this year; with the offensive line they have, they’re going to need a lot of it.

Division Winner 4- New Orleans Saints (8-8)

Oh the woes of the NFC South. Last season, the Carolina Panthers claimed the division with a 7-8-1 record last year, just the second time a division winner has had a losing record in the history of the NFL, the only other case being the Seattle Seahawks in 2010 with a 7-9 mark. To put as fine of a point as possible on just how bad the NFC South is, the division champions from 2008 to 2014 have been, in this order- Panthers, Saints, Falcons, Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Panthers. This rotating door of champions shows just how inconsistent and terrible they have been. This year, the New Orleans Saints are going to reclaim the division. Sorry for not analyzing the Saints too much. They’re a middle-of-the-pack team in a bad division, so that’s an accomplishment, I guess. Right?

Division Winner 3- Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)

Now for an interesting case- the Philadelphia Eagles. These Chip-Kelly-led birds are finally going to take the division, but this season will not be without some growing pains. Kelly has done what he intended to do when he took the job in Philadelphia, and that was to erase all memory of Andy Reid and his system. With an entirely new offense that looks more like a coalition of backups that are trying to find a home, they appear to be attempting to implement a college-style offense into the organization. If that is the case, I do not understand the addition of Sam Bradford unless the Eagles see something special in him that tells them that he won’t blow out his knee the first time he touches the field. Either way the system works out, they’re defense can do enough to keep them in games, and their running game is definitely enough to win them at least a few. This is going to be a fun year for those outside of Philadelphia, but I’d be surprised to see the city of Philadelphia still intact by the time the season is through.

Division Winner 2- Seattle Seahawks (13-3)

Remember what I said about the Seahawks being the first division winner with a losing record ever just five years ago? Yeah. They’ve made some changes. Four seasons, two Super Bowl appearances and one championship later, they’re the clear favorites in the NFC West, and they have a very good chance to make it to a third consecutive Super Bowl. This season, they’ll be running a very similar offense to the last few years. That’s because the system works. Russell Wilson is a great field general, and he is complemented greatly by Marshawn Lynch pounding the ball down the opposing defenses’ throats. The defense will continue to be the most physical group in the NFL. Just like they have been, the Seahawks will dominate, plain and simple.

Division Winner 1- Green Bay Packers (13-3)

Finally, we have the Green Bay Packers. They are one of the premier franchises in all of the NFL, and they will continue their winning tradition this season. Aaron Rodgers is very likely the best all-around quarterback in the NFL right now, and he has quite the assortment of weapons on his offense. Eddie Lacy is in the process of becoming a top running back; Randall Cobb, Davante Adams and James Jones make up one of the best young receiving corps in the league; and Richard Rodgers and Andrew Quarless are no slouches at tight end. Rodgers has all of these weapons, and only three quarters in which to play, as the vast majority of the Packers’ games will be over by the time the fourth quarter begins. Not only are the Packers the most complete offense in the league, but their defense, as a whole, is a solid unit. They’re nowhere close the prolific defense of the Seahawks, but they can definitely hold their own with any team in the league. This is what will lead the Packers to the top spot in the NFC. They may not have the emotional motivation of the Patriots or the physicality of the Seahawks, but they have a complete, well-rounded team that will take them far in the postseason.

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