Usually, it is not possible to top the fantastic football that is sure to come on Thanksgiving. This week is one of the outliers. The best matchup this week is clearly the game between the New England Patriots and the Green Bay Packers. I’ll let you make the call here: the team on the seven-game win streak, or the team that could only manage to beat the 4-7 Vikings by a field goal? I don’t know about you, but I’m going with the streaking Patriots. This being said, Lambeau Field will be no match for Tom Brady and the Patriots.

The first reason as to why the Patriots will continue their winning ways in Green Bay is because of the new addition of LeGarrette Blount. Blount recorded 78 yards on 12 carries and two trips to the end zone in the Patriots 34-9 thumping of the Detroit Lions. That gives Blount an astounding 6.5 yards per carry since rejoining the Pats, while the league average is 4.11. Let us not forget that this outstanding performance came against the team that leads the team in rushing defense, allowing just 70.7 rushing yards per game and an astonishingly low 3.1 yards per carry, a full yard below the league average. The Packers are not lagging too much behind on the running game, though. They average 107 yards per game with 4.2 yards per carry, both good for 18 out of the 32-team league. It is the physical running that Blount offers against the weak Green Bay front four that will separate New England early in this game.

As for the later quarters, the passing games of these two teams will come into play. Now this is a tough one to decide: two of the best quarterbacks of this era meeting in the lesser’s (Aaron Rodgers) home stadium. The stats may not be all on Brady’s side, (Rodgers with 2,937 yards, 30 touchdowns and three interceptions to Brady’s 2,998 yards, 26 touchdowns and six interceptions), but one thing that common metric stats cannot measure is a quarterback’s sense in the pocket, or, even, when a particular quarterback isn’t needed. Brady’s backup, Jimmy Garoppolo, has seen action in four games to replace Brady in the second half. In addition to the Garoppolo replacement frequency, the rushing attack, as previously stated, is getting much of the job done for the Patriots. Thus, Brady hasn’t need to throw the ball (or even be on the field) for much of his team’s playing. Look, though, for this game to be close. The fourth quarter play of both of these quarterbacks will be crucial, and it will be Brady’s 31-7 fourth quarter comeback advantage over Rodgers that will give the Patriots the best chance to win this game.

Lastly, it is impossible to address any football game without touching on the other side of the ball, where the New England defense of 2014 is looking like the New England defense of the early 2000’s that led its team to three Super Bowl championships. They’re built around a strong, veteran secondary with strong play from the linebackers and big boys down low. While the secondary is allowing a fairly pedestrian 242.1 yards per game, the longest passing play they’ve given up is just 46 yards, meaning that the deep ball (a great weapon of the Pack’s great arm at quarterback and speedy receivers) has been taken away from all of New England’s opponents, not to mention their 12 interceptions and holding opposing quarterbacks to a mere 82 quarterback rating. So, while these are two great quarterbacks at play, the real load will be placed on the running backs and secondaries of these two teams to win the game.

Thanksgiving Football

Chicago Bears-Detroit Lions (11:30 a.m. CT)

“This is shaping up to be a great game against two top-tier defenses with major playoff implications.” That is what I would’ve said at the beginning of this season. Now, it looks like the Chicago Bears have been reduced to cubs (in a similar playoff drought as their cross-town baseball counterparts), and the Lions are roaring louder than they have in my lifetime. They are looking to make the playoffs for the first time since 2011, but they’re trying their darndest to win a playoff game since their last win in 1991. A relatively easy win this week puts the Lions in a great position for the five seed in the playoffs as a wildcard, where they will likely play the winner of the NFC South, which the Atlanta Falcons lead with a 4-7 record. All in all, things are looking very good for the Lions, both in this week and the rest of the season.

Philadelphia Eagles-Dallas Cowboys (3:30 p.m. CT)

Here we go. Buckle your seat-belts and get ready for a lot of LeSean McCoy and DeMarco Murray, and even more incomplete passes. Just like last season, this will be a marquee matchup of two quarterbacks who love to sling the ball down the field accompanied by two ailing rushing attacks. This year, it is just the opposite. Tony Romo has had back and leg problems all year, and Nick Foles is out with a fractured collarbone, while McCoy and Murray have led two of the best running games in the NFL. The Eagles may have two-time-AFC-Championship-losing quarterback Mark Sanchez under center and a weaker offensive line, but their defense is far better than the Cowboys’, specifically their run prevention. This game will be a win for the Eagles at home, and it will give them a decisive advantage in the division; that is, until these two teams meet again in Week 15.

Seattle Seahawks-San Francisco 49ers (7:30 p.m. CT)

This will, undoubtedly, be the most physical and grinding of the three games on Thanksgiving. Both of these teams are 7-4. Both of these teams have appeared in the Super Bowl in the past two years. Both of these teams are fighting for simple wildcard position this year. The similarities between these two teams are striking, but only one team will win, and, not unlike the Patriots-Packers game, the winner will not be the home team. The Seahawks will soar after a big win against the division-leading Arizona Cardinals, and the 49ers’ soggy secondary will not be able to douse the flames of Russell Wilson’s arm.