It’s the largest championship pool in American sports; it accrues as much total revenue as the NFL’s regular season; and it has captivated sports fans everywhere for the past month. It is March Madness, and only four of the beginning 68 teams remain in the quest for the coveted NCAA National Championship trophy. These four teams (the University of Kentucky Wildcats, University of Wisconsin Badgers, Duke University Blue Devils and Michigan St. University Spartans) have all had very different roads to the Final Four, but only two can emerge from this select group to play in the championship game of the sport they love. These teams, through my near-clairvoyant eyes, will be revealed to you in the following blocks of text about the Final Four matchups and their outcomes:
#1 Duke Blue Devils (32-4) vs. #7 Michigan State Spartans (27-11)
The headlines on April 5 will read something like, “Duke and Michigan St. can’t handle their business in 40 minutes, need overtime to decide a winner.” Now, this is not a knock on either team’s finishing ability in regulation; rather, it is a compliment to their physical conditioning and mental toughness to outlast their opponents. Neither of these teams are strangers to playing a little extra basketball, as Michigan St. just completed their eighth overtime game of the season in their Elite Eight win over Louisville. Duke has played just two overtime games this season, but they have one of the most intensive practice schedules in all of college basketball, and it shows in their preparedness every time they step onto the court.
This game is going to be a battle for coaching supremacy. Tom Izzo of the Spartans has earned a 45-16 record, six Final Four appearances and one championship in 18 appearances in the NCAA Championship tournament, while Mike Krzyzewski of the Blue Devils has dominated college basketball with an 82-25 record, 18 Final Four appearances and four championships in 31 appearances in the tournament, not to mention his being the only NCAA coach ever to win 1,000 games. He currently boasts a 1,016-310 record as a head coach- a win total that will likely never be matched. These numbers might be a little skewed because Coach K has been coaching for 15 more years than Izzo, but, in the same timespan as Izzo has been coaching Michigan St., Duke has reached five Final Fours, and they’ve won two championships. Those stats don’t matter, though. What matters is what these teams are doing right now. Duke has dominated the post with Jahlil Okafor and Marshall Plumlee, and they’ve done their fair share of work from beyond the arc with Quinn Cook and Justise Winslow. Michigan St. has worked more with the outside shot with shooters like Travis Trice, Denzel Valentine and Bryn Forbes, while Matt Costello and Gavin Schilling add what little size they can to the post. The winner of this game will be the team that can impose their will on their opponent more efficiently. Both of these teams like to run the floor and score a lot of points. The difference lies in their approaches to this style of play. Duke is more partial to giving the ball to Okafor, letting him do his dirty work down low and working their offense inside-out, while Michigan St. lets their shots fly from deep early and often, hoping that some of them will fall and the defense will be forced to play farther from the basket, opening up big lanes for drives to the hole. If the game gets physical, Duke will prevail with their size and toughness. If the game turns into a shootout, though, Michigan St. will have the edge because of their many shooters that are all capable of putting the ball through the rim from long distance.
Duke is clearly the superior team in this game, and they will put an end to Michigan St.’s run this Saturday. The Blue Devils are simply too big for the Spartans to hope to contain, especially on the boards. If Michigan St.’s rebound total is anywhere near Duke’s, there is a serious problem that Coach K needs to fix. Speaking of Coach, he is the main reason that Duke will win this game. Through the years, players come and go in college, and a lot are choosing to leave as early as they can to get to the NBA. The one thing that has stayed constant in the NCAA is Coach K. Since 1980, he has been on the sidelines directing his players both on and off the court to become better players and people. All of this being said, don’t count Michigan St. out. There just seems to be something about Tom Izzo and pulling off upsets in the biggest games.
#1 Kentucky Wildcats (38-0) vs. #1 Wisconsin Badgers (35-3)
The Kentucky Wildcats are the owners of the best start to a season in NCAA history, and they are just two games away from completing the first completely undefeated season since the 1976 Indiana Hoosiers led by Hall-of-Fame coach Bob Knight. The Hoosiers, though, only played 32 games that season, while Kentucky is going to have to win 40 to complete their perfect year. That is, unless the Badgers of the University of Wisconsin have anything to say about it. Wisconsin, after losing to Maryland on Feb. 24, have won their last 10 games, with the smallest margin of victory in those games being seven points. Clearly, these are two teams that are already locked in and ready to go for their Final Four fight on April 4.
The strength of these two teams lies in Kentucky’s size and Frank Kaminsky. Kentucky is a young team loaded with enough big men to make any NBA team feel inadequate. None of Kentucky’s top seven scorers are under 6’6”, and it is their size and physicality in the paint that opens up so many scoring opportunities, especially from beyond the three-point arc, for them. Wisconsin, on the other hand, is not a very deep team. They’ll rotate the same seven players in and out for an entire game, and it’s been working well for them. Senior Frank Kaminsky has Wisconsin’s only seven-footer and scoring threat until the tournament began, but the Badger guards have stepped their game up in crunch time. Sam Dekker turned in the game of his life against the Wildcats of Arizona in their 85-78 win last Saturday, scoring 22 of his 27 points in the second half and making five of six buckets from long range. If Kaminsky can continue his average of 19 points and eight rebounds and Dekker and the other Wisconsin role players can contribute like they have so far, the Badgers will have a great shot at winning this game, but the key to this game will lie on the other end of the floor. Wisconsin is a stout perimeter defensive team, but their interior leaves some to be desired. Kaminsky is going to have to do work against the Kentucky big men down low for Wisconsin to have a legitimate shot to win this game.
I picked the Wisconsin Badgers to defeat the Kentucky Wildcats in this exact matchup at the beginning of the tournament, and I’ve seen nothing that will change my mind. Wisconsin’s tenacity on defense and their ability to stop entry passes into the paint, an area that may be renamed New Kentucky after the Wildcat’s dominance down low this season, that will lead to a Badger victory in this game. Kentucky is going to score at least 65-70 points per game, but it will be Wisconsin’s ability to limit scoring opportunities for Kentucky by slowing the game down and running a monotonous, almost painfully slow offense that will translate into a win for one team with the defensive ferocity of their mascot- the badger.
Brodrick Burse • Mar 31, 2015 at 11:26 am
Great story Jake.