From the Bleachers: Everything You Need to Know For the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs
Published: January 12, 2018
The first round of the NFL playoffs opened up with a pair of upsets and concluded with two games that came down to the final couple of minutes. The Titans were able to complete the week’s biggest upset in Kansas City, while the Falcons held off the Rams out west. Then on Sunday, the Jaguars and Saints were able to take advantage of their home-field advantage and advance past the Bills and Panthers, both ending in one-score games.
Each game of the opening round was exciting in its own unique way and with a loaded schedule in the divisional round, week two of the playoffs is even more enticing. There are heavy underdogs taking on one of the more likely teams to win it all, and then there’s elite offenses going against shut-down defenses. With an abundance of strong games on the schedule and some of the league’s top talents looking to secure their teams a spot in either the NFC or AFC Championship Game, there is plenty of must-see action in the NFL this weekend.
In this week’s column, the divisional round of the NFL playoffs is broken down game-by-game and given final score predictions. So spoiler alert.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Saturday, Jan. 13 3:35 P.M. CST NBC
The second round kicks off with the number one seed Philadelphia Eagles hosting the Atlanta Falcons. Last week, Atlanta played arguably its best game this season in LA, winning 26-13 over the Rams. The Falcons’ offense has seen a major drop-off under new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian in ‘17/18, but finally started rolling behind stand-out performances from the team’s biggest names: Matt Ryan, Devonta Freeman, and Julio Jones. Ryan threw for an efficient 218 yards and one touchdown without turning the ball over once, while Freeman ran for 66 yards and a score and Jones with 94 yards and a touchdown as well. And this was against a Rams defense with stars all across the board.
Atlanta’s trio will need to be strong again on Saturday against an Eagles defense that soared over the opposition throughout the season. Philadelphia ranks in the top five in points allowed per game (18.4), yards given up per game (306.5), and defensive turnovers (31). Cornerback Marcus Robinson, who’ll likely see a lot of Jones on Saturday, has emerged as one of the more dangerous corners in the game this season with four interceptions. With Robinson and Pro Bowlers Fletcher Cox and Malcolm Jenkins leading the way, the Eagles defense matches up well with the Falcons explosive offense.
The Eagles offense, however, is where things get a bit more interesting. With Carson Wentz under center, the Eagles average around 30 points a game through 13 weeks. When the breakout quarterback went down in week 14 against the Rams with a season-ending knee injury, Nick Foles was forced to come in and try to fill in the gap left by Wentz’s absence. The problem for Philly is that he hasn’t. In the three games in which Foles has started for the Eagles, the offense has scored 34, 19, and 0, averaging right around 17 points a game. That’s about a 13 point drop-off from their average with Wentz.
To overcome lackluster play in the passing game, Philadelphia will need running back Jay Ajayi, who is coming off of two weeks of rest after sitting week 17 and a bye, to finally hit his stride and try to return to the form he was in when he was with the Dolphins. Facing an Atlanta defense that’s top 10 in the NFL in points allowed per game and just held Todd Gurley in check for a majority of last week’s game, this appears unlikely. But as the opening round showed us, anything can happen in the NFL.
Prediction: Atlanta wins 21-10 over Philadelphia
Tennessee Titans vs. New England Patriots: Saturday Jan. 13 7:15 P.M. CST CBS
After trailing 21-3 at the half, the Titans were able to pull off a miraculous comeback in the second half in Kansas City and advanced past the Chiefs, winning by a final score of 22-21. Leading the way were Derrick Henry, who split playing time with veteran DeMarco Murray for most of the season, ran for 156 yards and a touchdown and quarterback Marcus Mariota somehow managed to throw a touchdown to himself.
Everything went right for the Titans after halftime, and are now off to the second round to face…the New England Patriots. Quite the reward, right? The Patriots finished as the top seed in the AFC and are fully rested heading into their matchup with the Titans after earning a first round bye. The rest can only mean good things for the Patriots offense, which scored the second most PPG (28.6) and averaged the most YPG (394.2) in the NFL. The lead catalyst for the unit, yet again for his age 40 season, was Tom Brady who put up MVP numbers in 2017 with 4,577 yards and a 102.8 QBR.
Looking to try and “stop” Brady and New England’s offense is a Titans defense that’s coming off a game that showed the group’s flaws and strengths. In the first half, Tennessee was torn apart by the Alex Smith-Travis Kelce duo that wasn’t really stopped until Kelce was forced to leave the game due to injury. On Saturday night, they’ll have to deal with the combo of Brady and Rob Gronkowski. If they can’t figure out a way to stop the tight end again this weekend, the game could turnout a lot more like the first half rather than the second that saw the Titans shutout the Chiefs.
Flipping the fields, second year running back Derrick Henry is set to start for the third straight week, and this is a huge bonus for the Titans offense. Over the past two weeks, Henry has totaled 308 yards and two touchdowns. In an offense lacking of them, Henry is a true game-changer for the Titans and will need to do it again this week against an improved New England defense. While they’ve struggled in terms of yards allowed, the Patriots have given up the fifth fewest points per game. The Titans pulled off the first round’s biggest upset last week, but between this New England defense and a Brady-led offense, the odds aren’t in their favor this week at Gillette Stadium.
Prediction: New England wins 31-14 over Tennessee
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Sunday Jan. 14 12:05 P.M. CST CBS
In their previous meeting back on October 8, the Jacksonville Jaguars were able to go into Pittsburgh and win 30-9 over the Steelers. Rookie Leonard Fournette had the best day of his career in this game, with 181 yards and two touchdowns, and the defense intercepted Ben Roethlisberger five times. It was a statement win for the Jags, showing the NFL that they aren’t the same Jacksonville team that finished with a pick in the top ten for ten consecutive years. In their second meeting of the season, they look to make even larger of a statement: that they’re Super Bowl contenders.
To prove this, the Jaguars will need their offense to fire on all cylinders as they contest with a Steelers defense that allowed the fifth fewest YPG (306.9) and seventh fewest PPG (19.2). While he ran all over this defense in their first meeting, Fournette hasn’t been able to return to this level for most of the season, and his struggles continued last week against Buffalo. The rookie went for just 57 yards on 21 carries (an average of 2.7), forcing quarterback Blake Bortles to carry the offense. Bortles was able to find success on the ground, running for 88 yards, but did little-to-nothing through the air with a mere 87 passing yards and a 58.6 QBR. The Jags were still able to win with their quarterback throwing for less than 100 yards but if this trend continues on Sunday, Bortles and his Jaguars will likely be less fortunate, especially with who’s standing on the other side of the field.
Given the nickname of the “Three B’s”, the Steelers’ All-Pro trio of Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown is arguably the strongest QB-RB-WR trio in the game. Starting with Big Ben, the veteran QB threw for over 4,000 yards for the fifth time in his career and also 28 touchdowns. Bell led the league in rushing for a majority of the season, but ended up finishing third with 1,291 yards. What truly makes Bell special, however, is his ability as a receiver as he led all running backs in receptions (81) and was fourth in receiving yards (655) at his position.
Leading his position at receiving yards is the returning Antonio Brown who has been out since suffering an injury in week 15 against the Patriots. Despite missing the last two and a half games of the season, Brown still had the most receiving yards (1,533) and third most touchdowns (9). Expected to be back at 100%, the star wideout creates another dimension to an already loaded Steelers offense.
The Steelers have one of the strongest offenses in the game, which makes the match-up with the dominant Jacksonville defense all the more exciting. The Jaguars have given opposing offenses nightmares week in and week out, totaling the second most takeaways (33) and have given up the second fewest YPG (286.1) and PPG (16.8). Looking to try and contain Brown will be Pro Bowl cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye, who have emerged as one of the better corner duos in the entire league. Stopping both Bell and Brown is as close to an impossible task as anything else in the NFL, but if at least one of them can be slowed down, Jacksonville has a chance to upset the Steelers yet again in Pittsburgh this weekend. But with overall sloppy play from quarterback Blake Bortles in recent weeks, that still isn’t very likely.
Prediction: Pittsburgh wins 28-21 over Jacksonville
New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings: Sunday Jan. 14 3:40 P.M. CST FOX
Finishing off the weekend slate are the New Orleans Saints and the Minnesota Vikings. While the day’s first game sees the best potential AFC offense vs. defense battle, the second game isn’t too shabby either, with Minnesota’s NFC best defense hosting arguably its’ best offense in the Saints. New Orleans scored 31 points in last week’s win over their division rival Panthers, the highest point total of the opening round. Drew Brees led the way with 376 yards and 2 touchdowns, primarily targeting his top two receivers Michael Thomas (131 yards) and Ted Ginn (115 yards) through most of the game.
The passing game may have been strong for the Saints, but their run game was uncharacteristically inefficient with their star running back duo of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram totaling just 45 rushing yards and one touchdown. Now the pair gets to head to Minnesota and take on a Vikings defense that has risen to the top of the NFL this season. No team in the entire NFL has allowed fewer PPG (15.8) or YPG (275.9), and versus the run, only the Eagles have given up less total yards. Minnesota has gotten to where they are in large part due to their defense’s ability to lock down the opposing team’s top threats, and will need to do so again on Sunday if they hope to advance.
On the topic of locking down an opponent’s top threat, there aren’t many in the league who are better at this than rookie corner Marshon Lattimore. He held Carolina’s number one receiver Devin Funchess to 79 yards last week, and has led the Saints to the 10th ranked defense in terms of passing. Lattimore will be paired up with one of Stefon Diggs or Adam Thielen, who combined for 250 receiving yards the last time these two teams met in week one.
If the Saints can find a way to limit Case Keenum and the Vikings’ pass game, they can overcome the gap they face on defense and, behind future Hall of Famer Drew Brees, pull off the upset in Minnesota.
Prediction: New Orleans wins 20-17 over Minnesota