From the Bleachers: Predicting Who Ends Up in the Super Bowl

Credit to Alyssa Barber

Dominic Hoscher, FHNGameday.com editor, points to the field on the bleachers of FHN.

By Dominic Hoscher, FHNGameday.com Editor
Published: January 19, 2018

There are just three games left in the season, with two of them deciding which two teams will be featured in Super Bowl LII. This means that there is little margin of error for the remaining four teams and that one mistake could end a team’s season. The teams that have avoided this so far are the Patriots, Jaguars, Eagles and Vikings, all winning their divisional round matchups last weekend.

The divisional round consisted of everything from blowout victories for heavy favorites to games decided in the last few minutes, one even on the very last play. The Eagles opened up the weekend with a close 15-10 win over the Falcons thanks to a lock-down defensive effort, while the Patriots had the week’s most comfortable win, smashing the Titans 35-14 on Saturday night. The round continued on Sunday with the Jaguars outlasting the Steelers 45-42 in a shootout. Then there’s the game that everyone is talking about: the Vikings and Saints.

The mayhem started with 1:29 left to play in the fourth quarter, where Kai Forbath hit a 53 yard field goal to give the Vikings a 23-21. Leaving Drew Brees nearly 90 seconds to at least get into field goal range wasn’t the best idea, however, as the veteran quarterback was able to lead the Saints down the field and into Minnesota territory, which allowed Wil Lutz to convert a 43 yard field goal to put New Orleans up 24-23 with just 25 seconds remaining. All hope appeared to be lost for the Vikings until Case Keenum hit Stefon Diggs for a walk-off, round winning 61 yard touchdown as time expired.

The weekend’s final game was an instant classic, which leaves one question: can it be topped on Championship Sunday? With the Patriots hosting the Jaguars to kick the day off and the Eagles hosting the Vikings to close it out, the NFL boasts a strong Championship schedule that could see either game top last week’s thriller. But who will come out of both games with a chance at the ultimate glory? Find out who will likely leave Sunday smiling in this week’s column.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots: Sunday, Jan. 21 2:05 P.M. CST CBS

If you were to say at the beginning of the season that Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville Jaguars would be taking on the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game, not many would have believed you. I mean, Blake Bortles? The Jaguars? Really? But now it’s the middle of January, and the Jaguars have a realistic shot at making their first Super Bowl in team history. The one team that stands in their way, however, is no stranger to this environment. And it’s the New England Patriots. 

The Patriots are appearing in their seventh straight AFC Championship Game and are coming off a dominant victory over the Tennessee Titans. New England excelled on both sides of the ball versus Tennessee, holding the Titans offense to just 14 points and Tom Brady threw at will against their secondary, going for 337 passing yards and three touchdowns. The Patriots saw three players go over 75 receiving yards (Danny Amendola, Rob Gronkowski and Dion Lewis) while Lewis also added 61 yards on the ground. The whole offense was effective, and will need to be again on Sunday against the Jaguars defense.

Despite giving up their second highest point total of the season against the Steelers, the Jaguars defense is still loaded with talent and creates multiple matchup nightmares for Brady and the Patriots offense. The Jags could look to place Pro Bowl corner Jalen Ramsey on Gronkowski in attempt to eliminate New England’s biggest threat and for most of the season it’s worked for Jacksonville. Ramsey has allowed just 51.1 percent of attempted passes against him to be completed, almost always doing this against the opponents top receiver. When Gronk is facing coverage from a cornerback, there’s a passer rating of just 54.6 for when he is targeted. If the Jags can utilize this matchup, some of the team’s other top defenders, such as AJ Bouye and Myles Jack, can focus on guys like Brandin Cooks and Dion Lewis which increases the odds of slowing down a high powered Patriots offense.

While the key on defense is slowing down Gronkowski, the x-factor on offense for the Jaguars is Leonard Fournette. Last Sunday, Fournette ran for over 100 yards for the first time since December 10 against the Seahawks while also having three touchdowns. When the rookie rusher is running and running effectively, the Jags are an entirely different team. In games in which he ran for over 100 yards, Jacksonville has a record of 5-1. When he goes for less than 100, the Jags are just 4-5. Fournette is the most important player in the Jaguars offense, and will need to keep it rolling on Sunday against a middle of the pack Patriots rushing defense that’s allowed 114.8 rushing yards per game, ranking 20th in the league.

Jacksonville enters Sunday’s game as the underdogs, and rightfully so. They’re on the road at the number one seed in the AFC and the Patriots are favorites to win it all  come February. However, if the Jaguars can exploit a plus matchup on offense with Fournette going against the Patriots defense while also shutting down New England’s top offensive threats on defense, the Jags can pull off an upset for the second straight week. But with Brady and Bill Belichick leading the way for New England at home, the Patriots are the safer bet this Sunday. 

Prediction: New England wins 24-17 over Jacksonville

 

Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Sunday, Jan. 21 5:40 P.M. CST FOX

The second half of Sunday’s pair of Championship games is between the Minnesota Vikings and the Philadelphia Eagles. Both teams are coming off thrilling victories in the divisional round, with the Eagles stopping Falcons receiver Julio Jones on a critical fourth down and the Vikings, as mentioned earlier, winning on a walk-off touchdown. Neither team has ever won a Super Bowl, and the last of the two teams to make an appearance in the big game was the Eagles all of the way back in 2004. With long Championship droughts on both sides, neither team truly has an edge in terms of experience, the complete opposite of the situation in the AFC.

With experience being a non-factor, the NFC Championship Game will likely come down to both of the team’s biggest strengths: their defenses. Starting with the hosts, the Eagles held a high-powered Atlanta offense to just 10 points last weekend, limiting Matt Ryan to 210 passing yards and star running Devonta Freeman to just seven yards on 10 carries. Stopping the run has been one of the keys to Philadelphia’s successes this season, having allowed the fewest rushing yards per game in the league (79.2). On the other side, the running game has been the strength of a Minnesota offense that averaged the seventh most rushing yards per game (122.3) in 2017 behind the two-headed attack of Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon.

If the two were to cancel each other out on Sunday, that’d leave both teams to rely more on some of their weaker points. For the Vikings, that’s their passing game that ranked almost right in the middle of the NFL in passing yards with Case Keenum under center for most of the season. With the Eagles, it’s their secondary that ranked 17th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game at 227.3. While neither teams excels in either of these two areas, the game could likely come down to which team is able to take advantage of the other’s weakness. If so, advantage Vikings.

Switching the fields, the Vikings defense has been just as, if not more, impressive than Philadelphia’s. No team allowed fewer yards (275.9) or points (15.8) per game during the regular season, and are coming off a game in which they held Drew Brees and an elite Saints offense in check for a majority of Sunday’s contest. This Minnesota defense creates the biggest mismatch of the Championship round: the Vikings secondary against a Nick Foles-led passing attack. As mentioned in last week’s column, the Eagles have seen a major drop off on offense with Foles at the helm and it didn’t get much better against the Falcons. Foles threw for 246 yards and no touchdowns, going for a QBR of 47.4. While it wasn’t necessarily a bad day for the veteran quarterback, the Eagles offense showed that it lacks the explosion it once had with Carson Wentz under center.

Looking to step up for Philadelphia will be their running game, which didn’t do much last Saturday. Their top back was Jay Ajayi who had 54 yards and their second leading rusher was a receiver: Nelson Agholor with just 20 yards. Now they’ll have to go against a Vikings defense that allowed the second fewest rushing yards per game (83.6) behind the Eagles. With advantages all across the board, the Minnesota Vikings are the pick to have a chance at history in two weeks in their own stadium.

Prediction: Minnesota wins 17-10 over Philadelphia